Nasdaq futures rise 170 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens

• US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the first decline in nine months, pushing the probability of a September Fed rate increase down to 31% from roughly 50% a month ago
• Micron stock jumped 3.5% to above $1,000 premarket on domestic chip-sourcing signals and expectations that DRAM prices will rise 15-20% and NAND prices 30-40% in Q3
• Brent crude climbed to $89.44 per barrel as stalled Iran negotiations and reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic threaten to reignite inflation concerns despite weaker economic data

Market Summary

Market Overview:

Nasdaq futures led Monday's premarket session with a 170-point gain (+0.6%), while S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% and Dow futures slipped 0.1%. The S&P 500 approached its 28th record close of 2026, with technology stocks driving momentum.

Key Economic Data:

US retail sales fell 0.6% in July—the first decline in nine months—against expectations for a 0.1% increase. The control group dropped 0.4%, raising concerns about consumer spending. This weakness reduced September Fed rate hike probability to 31% from approximately 50% a month earlier. The dollar hit its lowest level since early June.

Memory Chip Rally:

Micron surged 3.5% above $1,000 in premarket trading, supported by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's preference for Apple to source memory chips domestically rather than from China. KeyBanc forecasts DRAM prices rising 15-20% and NAND prices surging 30-40% in Q3, reinforcing the AI-driven supply tightness thesis. SanDisk jumped 5%, with Seagate and Western Digital also advancing.

Energy Markets:

Brent crude approached $90/barrel (up $1 to $89.44), while WTI climbed toward $83, both gaining over 5% last week. Stalled Iran diplomatic talks and reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic threatened the softer inflation narrative.

Key Events Ahead:

Critical earnings from major retailers this week—Home Depot (Tuesday), Target and Lowe's (Wednesday), and Walmart (Thursday)—will determine whether July's spending decline represents timing distortion or fundamental consumer weakness. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey releases Monday at 8:30 AM ET.