China leads wave of clean power wastage as grids globally hit limits

• Independent analysts estimate China rejected 26.1% of total wind and solar output in H1 2026, far exceeding the government's reported curtailment rates of 8.6% (solar) and 9.1% (wind)
• Insufficient transmission infrastructure and guaranteed coal plant operation contracts are blamed for structural curtailment issues expected to persist through the decade
• Curtailment surged across Asia-Pacific: Australia up 37% to 2.93 TWh (7% of renewable output), Japan up 34% to 2.35 TWh (4% of output), and India curtailed 8.13 TWh in Q2 (14% of solar output)

Summary: China Leads Global Wave of Clean Power Curtailment

Key Findings:

China rejected 360 terawatt-hours (TWh) of clean energy in the first half of 2026, representing a 49% surge from the previous year—enough electricity to power Mexico for an entire year. Independent estimates by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicate China curtailed 26.1% of its total wind and solar output, significantly higher than the government's reported figures of 8.6% for solar and 9.1% for wind.

Root Causes:

Insufficient transmission infrastructure and supply contracts guaranteeing operations of newly built coal-fired power plants are forcing grids to reject renewable energy. Analysts describe China's curtailment as "structural, not temporary," with pressure expected to continue through the decade.

Global Impact:

Curtailment is emerging as a worldwide challenge:

• Australia: 2.93 TWh curtailed (up 37%), representing 7% of wind/solar output
• Japan: 2.35 TWh rejected (up 34%), 4% of renewable output
• India: 8.13 TWh of solar power curtailed in Q2 2026, accounting for 14% of solar output

Market Implications:

Rising curtailments are undermining renewable investment viability and assessment. Chinese coal-fired generation is increasing in 2026, reversing its first decline in a decade. Investors are shifting strategies toward solar-plus-storage projects to mitigate curtailment exposure.

Solutions:

Analysts recommend immediate battery storage scale-up, citing successful models in Chile (which doubled battery capacity in 2025 by adding 4 GWh) and Bulgaria as examples for reducing curtailment pressures globally.