Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry

• Shipping through the Strait dropped to just 5 vessels on Saturday and zero on Sunday, down from an average of 130 daily transits before the war started February 28
• Iran's Foreign Minister denied any ceasefire or active negotiations exist, while Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister asserted the Strait will remain under 'Iran's command'
• Oil prices remained relatively stable with Brent at $88.45 and WTI at $81.79 per barrel despite the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire expiration

Summary: Strait of Hormuz Shipping Crisis Intensifies as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Expires

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to critical lows as a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired Monday with no resolution in sight. According to Kpler data, only five vessels transited the strait on Saturday, down sharply from 31 the previous weekend, while no ships passed through Sunday.

Key Figures:

• Shipping traffic down 90% since conflict began February 28
• Five-day average of 13 vessel transits last Tuesday—lowest since May 12
• Normal traffic: approximately 130 vessels daily
• The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil supplies

Market Impact:

Oil prices remained relatively stable despite tensions, with Brent crude down 0.15% to $88.45/barrel and WTI declining 0.74% to $81.79 on Monday.

Diplomatic Standoff:

Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated no formal negotiations are underway, with only Qatar and Pakistan exchanging messages between parties. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi emphasized the strait remains under "Iranian command." Meanwhile, President Trump claimed he would soon declare the strait open, highlighting the disconnect between both sides.

Critical Context:

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global energy markets. The dramatic reduction in shipping traffic threatens supply chains and oil deliveries worldwide. With talks stalled and both nations maintaining firm positions, the situation poses significant risks to global energy security and broader market stability. The lack of meaningful negotiations and the ceasefire's expiration without resolution suggest continued disruption ahead.