New York Fed finds credit card and auto loan delinquencies remain elevated

Fox Business | August 14, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
Bearish 76% Confidence Majority Agreement
Read Original Article

Key Points

  • Credit card delinquencies of 90+ days past due rose slightly from 6.93% in Q2 2025 to 6.97% in Q2 2026, with new delinquencies holding at around 3% of balances
  • Auto loan serious delinquencies increased from 7.6% in Q3 2022 to 12.8% by Q1 2026, though economists note this reflects 'stale, charged-off debts' rather than fundamental consumer health deterioration
  • Overall delinquency rates across most debt products have remained relatively stable over the past two years, with mortgage delinquencies at around 4%

AI Summary

Summary

The New York Federal Reserve reported that credit card and auto loan delinquencies remain elevated despite overall debt delinquency rates improving in Q2 2026. Aggregate debt delinquency stood at 4.7% of outstanding balances.

Key Findings:

Credit card delinquencies over 30 days past due have held steady at approximately 9% of outstanding balances since reaching that level in 2024. Auto loans are at roughly 8%, while mortgages hover around 4%. New delinquencies for credit cards entering 90+ days past due rose slightly from 6.93% in Q2 2025 to 6.97% in Q2 2026.

The Fed noted a concerning trend in stock delinquency rates for credit cards, which increased from 7.6% in Q3 2022 to 12.8% in Q1 2026. However, economists clarified this rise stems from lenders reporting charged-off debts for longer durations rather than fundamental deterioration in consumer health.

Market Implications:

The elevated delinquency levels suggest persistent consumer financial stress despite stabilization. Auto loans and credit cards show particular weakness, with new delinquencies remaining high over the past two years. Joelle Scally, economic policy advisor at the New York Fed, emphasized the need for continued monitoring of these trends.

Student loan data showed distortions due to the resumption of default reporting following the pandemic-era pause. When excluding charged-off debt, new credit card delinquencies have remained around 3% of balances since 2024, with the latest reading at 2.95%.

The data suggests sustained pressure on consumer credit quality, particularly relevant for financial institutions with significant exposure to consumer lending.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 75%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 80%
Consensus Bearish 76%