French drought could halve maize crop, deepen EU harvest losses

• French maize production could fall to under 7 million tons (down ~50% year-over-year), the lowest since 1976, with some crops being diverted to livestock fodder due to dried grassland
• EU maize output is projected to drop below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s, down from the European Commission's July forecast of 51.9 million tons
• Poland is set to become the EU's largest maize producer this year with output near 9 million tons, thanks to timely July rainfall, while Germany faces a 14% production decline

Summary: French Drought to Halve Maize Crop, Deepening EU Harvest Losses

Key Developments:

Severe drought and heat are expected to halve France's 2026 maize harvest to approximately 7 million tons—the lowest since 1976. While France's agriculture ministry projects a 35% decline to 9 million tons, analysts from Expana and Argus forecast steeper drops of roughly 50%.

EU-Wide Impact:

The European Commission forecasts EU maize production at 51.9 million metric tons for 2026/27, the lowest since 2007. However, analysts expect output could fall below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s. Germany's crop is projected to decline 14% year-on-year to 4.24 million tons.

Market Implications:

• Reduced EU production will significantly increase import demand
• Extreme weather has dried grasslands, forcing farmers to divert maize for livestock fodder rather than grain, potentially reducing grain maize area by several hundred thousand hectares
• Early harvesting expected to begin this month, unusually early for France

Regional Variations:

Poland may become the EU's largest maize producer this year, with output holding near 9 million tons (8.7-9.0 million tons estimated) thanks to timely July rainfall. Romania also received beneficial rain, though lower plantings will likely limit production to around 8 million tons.

Critical Factors:

France faces record soil drought and extreme heat, particularly damaging non-irrigated fields. Forecasted rainfall next week will arrive too late for most crops already past critical growth stages.

The production shortfall represents the worst agronomic situation for EU maize in decades, according to industry analysts.