Dow opens higher as softer PPI and falling oil lift Wall Street mood

• PPI rose 0.1% monthly versus 0.2% expected; core PPI increased 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast, strengthening case for a Fed pause in September with probability rising to 65% from 60%
• Crude oil fell roughly 2% (Brent to $87, WTI to $81.30) after six consecutive gains, driven by weaker demand projections and higher US inventories despite ongoing US-Iran tensions and reduced Strait of Hormuz shipping
• Cisco dropped 9.2% despite beating revenue guidance, while Cerebras fell on below-estimate quarterly revenue; Dell and HP gained on positive Lenovo results, and Accelerant surged 44% on a $4B+ Thoma Bravo acquisition

Market Summary: Stocks Rise on Softer Inflation Data and Falling Oil

Key Market Movements:

US equities opened higher Thursday, with the Dow Jones gaining 99 points (+0.19%), the S&P 500 up 0.33%, and the Nasdaq advancing 0.29%. The rally was driven by softer-than-expected inflation data and a retreat in crude oil prices.

Inflation Data:

July's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.2% forecast. Core PPI increased 0.2%, under the 0.3% estimate. This followed Wednesday's Consumer Price Index showing headline inflation up 0.1%, meeting expectations. The softer wholesale inflation reinforced views that price pressures remain contained.

Federal Reserve Implications:

Fed funds futures now price in a 65% probability of an interest rate pause at the September meeting, up from 60% pre-PPI report. Investors interpret the data as reducing the need for further rate hikes.

Energy Markets:

Crude oil fell approximately 2% after six consecutive sessions of gains. Brent crude dropped to around $87/barrel, while WTI declined to about $81.30/barrel. The retreat occurred despite ongoing US-Iran tensions and reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by weaker demand forecasts and rising US inventories.

Notable Stock Movements:

• Cisco Systems: Down 9.2% despite beating revenue guidance, suggesting investor disappointment with growth quality or margins
• Cerebras: Declined after missing quarterly revenue estimates
• Dell Technologies and HP: Gained following strong Lenovo results
• Accelerant: Surged 44% on Thoma Bravo's $4+ billion acquisition announcement
• Tapestry: Fell 16% despite positive earnings outlook

With over 430 S&P 500 companies reported, earnings season nears conclusion as focus shifts to economic data and Fed policy trajectory.