Are global oil stocks big enough to weather another six months of US-Iran war?

• U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to lowest levels since 1983, with approximately 100 million barrels now inaccessible due to deteriorating infrastructure, leaving only 200 million barrels available (covering just 40 days of the current supply gap)
• Global diesel and jet fuel stocks are at the bottom of their five-year range after Middle Eastern and Russian refineries were damaged, creating acute shortages of these critical middle distillates
• China holds an estimated 1.7 billion barrels in undisclosed reserves, enough to cover its pre-war Strait of Hormuz imports (5.5 million bpd) for nearly a year, making it one of the most comfortable positions among major economies

Summary: Global Oil Stocks and US-Iran War Supply Disruption

Key Crisis Metrics:

The ongoing US-Iran war has created a massive oil supply disruption, with Saudi Aramco reporting 2.6 billion barrels lost since the conflict began—equivalent to 25 days of global consumption. While Aramco estimates 11 million barrels per day (bpd) of Gulf supply is offline, analysts calculate the actual daily supply gap at 5 million bpd due to reduced demand.

IEA Emergency Reserves:

The International Energy Agency announced a 400 million barrel release from emergency reserves in March. Total IEA stocks stand at 1.5 billion barrels, but only 0.9 billion are government-held stocks that can actually be released—sufficient for just 180 days at current supply gaps. Commercial stocks cannot be mandated for release by the IEA.

US Strategic Position:

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to lowest levels since January 1983. A Government Accountability Office report indicates 25% of reserves (over 100 million barrels) are inaccessible due to deteriorating infrastructure, leaving only 200 million barrels available—covering just 40 days of the supply gap.

Critical Concerns:

Global diesel and jet fuel stocks are at five-year lows, with Middle Eastern and Russian refinery damage exacerbating shortages. Analysts warn that depleted inventories leave markets vulnerable to sharp price increases, with limited capacity for additional IEA releases.

China's Buffer:

China holds an estimated 1.0-1.7 billion barrels in undisclosed reserves, potentially covering pre-war Strait of Hormuz imports (5.5 million bpd) for nearly a year—one of the most comfortable positions among major economies.

Market Implication:

The global oil market faces severe vulnerability with diminishing buffer stocks and uncertain reserve accessibility.