‘Hormuz remains blocked': Iran disputes Trump claims as traffic sinks to near 3-month lows

• Ship traffic through Hormuz has fallen to around 13 vessels on Tuesday, nearly the lowest since May 12 and 90% below the pre-conflict daily average of 130 ships
• Iran's conditions for reopening include ending the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief, American troop withdrawals, and war reparations
• A top IRGC advisor stated that Iran aims to 'attain deterrence' by prolonging the conflict to impose costs on potential attackers, claiming the U.S. military is 'weaker than what we perceived'

Summary

Key Development: Iran and the U.S. are disputing control over the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran maintaining the critical waterway remains blocked despite President Trump's claims of "total control."

Critical Facts:

• Iran's Persian Strait Gulf Authority stated the Strait "remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran's conditions are accepted"
• Ship traffic through Hormuz hit near 3-month lows, with approximately 13 vessels transiting Tuesday—down 90% from the pre-conflict average of 130 ships daily
• The lowest traffic level since May 12, according to Kpler trade intelligence data
• The standoff follows U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28

Iranian Demands:

Iran's Supreme National Security Council outlined conditions for reopening including:

• End to U.S. naval blockade
• Sanctions relief
• American troop withdrawals
• War reparations

Strategic Positioning:

Mohammad Reza Naqdi, senior IRGC advisor, claimed Iran sees the U.S. military as "weaker than what we perceived" and accused Washington of "confusion and bewilderment" with shifting objectives. Iran's strategy appears focused on prolonging conflict to achieve deterrence and impose costs on potential attackers.

Market Implications:

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, handling roughly 20% of worldwide petroleum shipments. The 90% reduction in maritime traffic represents severe disruption to energy supply chains, likely supporting elevated oil prices and increasing supply uncertainty for Asian markets, particularly China, Japan, and India.