Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt

• Oil exports through Hormuz currently average nearly 9 million barrels per day with U.S. military escorts, down from pre-war levels of 20 million bpd when including crude and petroleum products
• A June 17 interim deal temporarily boosted traffic to 60 ships per day by June 26, but collapsed after disputes over shipping routes, with Iran attacking tankers using the U.S.-protected route along Oman's coast
• Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims private firms undercount ship transits due to vessels moving covertly, though current traffic remains 80% below post-deal peak levels

Summary: Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Near Three-Month Low Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions

Key Developments:

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to a five-day average of approximately 13 vessels on Tuesday, approaching a three-month low since May 12, according to Kpler data. This represents a 90% decline from the pre-conflict daily average of 130 ships before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Conflicting Data Points:

Energy Secretary Chris Wright reports oil exports through Hormuz have reached a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd), with tankers transiting under U.S. military protection. Total Gulf state oil exports average 15 million bpd including pipelines, down from pre-war levels of 20 million bpd through Hormuz alone. Wright claims private companies undercount transits due to covert vessel movements.

Diplomatic Impasse:

Iran's national security official Mohsen Rezaei stated Tuesday that full reopening of the strait depends on the U.S. meeting Tehran's demands. Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting last week that a deal was imminent—comments that triggered an oil sell-off—no agreement has materialized.

Timeline:

An interim U.S.-Iran deal signed June 17 initially boosted traffic to 60 ships by June 26, but collapsed due to disputes over undefined shipping routes. Iran subsequently attacked tankers using U.S.-protected routes near Oman's coast, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes and a reimposed naval blockade. Current traffic remains 80% below the post-deal peak.

Market Implications:

The ongoing disruption through this critical oil export corridor creates significant uncertainty for global energy markets, with diplomatic efforts showing limited progress despite recent Trump administration attempts at renewed negotiations.