Saudi Red Sea oil exports go dark as Houthi attack threat grows

• Ship-tracking firms reported vastly different Yanbu export estimates for the week of August 3: Vortexa calculated 2.38 million bpd, Kpler estimated 1.78 million bpd, and AXSMarine showed just 640,000 bpd, reflecting the challenge of tracking dark voyages
• Approximately 70% of Saudi west coast loadings have been dark over recent weeks, with all Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involving vessels without continuous AIS coverage
• Saudi Arabia has redirected more oil northward through the Red Sea to Egypt's SUMED pipeline, with crude loadings at Egypt's Sidi Kerir hitting a record 2.17 million bpd (90% Saudi crude), up 50% from the previous week

Summary: Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Go Dark Amid Houthi Threats

Key Development:

Saudi Arabia's Red Sea crude exports are increasingly operating without vessel tracking signals following Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis declaring a maritime embargo against the kingdom on July 20. All recent loadings from Yanbu port are now conducted "dark" without Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals visible.

Critical Figures:

• Yanbu loading estimates for the week of August 3 show extreme discrepancies due to dark operations:
• Vortexa: 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 2.71 million
• Kpler: 1.78 million bpd, down sharply from 4.04 million
• AXSMarine: 640,000 bpd, up from 420,000 bpd
• Approximately 70% of Saudi west coast loadings conducted dark in recent weeks
• All Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involved vessels without continuous AIS coverage

Traffic Impact:

Daily vessel transits through Bab al-Mandeb Strait dropped to 32 from roughly 50 before the blockade announcement.

Route Shifts:

Saudi Arabia is redirecting oil northward through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal or Egypt's SUMED pipeline. Crude loadings at Egypt's Sidi Kerir port hit a record 2.17 million bpd last week—50% higher than the previous week, with 90% being Saudi crude.

Market Implications:

The lack of visibility into Saudi exports creates significant challenges for the International Energy Agency, OPEC, and traders attempting to assess global oil supply and forecast market trends. Insurance costs for Red Sea transits have risen, prompting major tanker operators like DHT to redirect vessels northward rather than exiting via Bab al-Mandeb.