Nasdaq set to lead tentative Wall Street rebound ahead of July CPI

• Brent crude rallied over 12% from last week's low to near $88/barrel, driven by tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's demand for compensation from Iran
• US 10-year Treasury yields rose 6 basis points to 4.71% as bond selling spread across Asia-Pacific markets despite a Japanese holiday closure
• The oil-driven inflation risk is putting the Fed in an 'awkward spot' as softer employment data is no longer sufficient to ease rate hike concerns

Summary

Market Overview:

U.S. futures pointed to a cautious rebound on August 11, 2026, ahead of July's CPI data release. Nasdaq futures led gains at +0.3%, followed by S&P 500 futures (+0.2%) and Dow futures (+0.1%). The previous session saw the Nasdaq close down 0.3%, the Dow off 0.1%, and the S&P 500 nearly flat.

Key Market Driver:

Brent crude oil prices emerged as the dominant concern, holding near $87.75/barrel after a four-session rally that pushed prices 12% above the prior week's lows. The surge followed President Trump's fresh demands for compensation from Iran, dampening hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation and Fed Implications:

Analyst Patrick Munnelly from Tickmill Group noted that oil's rally has reignited inflation anxiety, overshadowing relief from last week's softer jobs data. With oil near $88/barrel, the Federal Reserve faces increasing pressure as earlier soft employment figures are no longer sufficient to ease rate hike concerns. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose 6 basis points to 4.71%.

Global Markets:

Asian-Pacific government bonds sold off, the dollar remained firm, gold broke higher, and the yen weakened. European markets showed mixed performance: London's FTSE 100 remained flat, Paris CAC 40 dipped slightly, and Frankfurt's DAX gained 0.1%.

Bottom Line:

Markets remain on edge as oil-driven inflation risks complicate the Fed's policy outlook ahead of critical CPI data, with investors reassessing rate expectations despite recent softer employment numbers.