Oil Price Forecast: WTI and Brent Rise as U.S.-Iran Deal Hopes Fade

• Exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply to 3 million barrels per day for the week ending August 7, down from 4.4 million bpd the previous week
• Technical analysis suggests WTI could target $92-$100 levels, with immediate resistance at $87, while Brent faces key resistance at $92 before potentially moving toward $100
• Saudi Aramco postponed the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery, adding to supply tightness, though any progress on peace negotiations could quickly reverse price gains

Market Summary: Oil Prices Rally on Geopolitical Tensions

Key Price Movements:

• WTI crude oil approached $82, up over 5% on Monday
• Brent crude remained above $90.50, also gaining 5%
• Both benchmarks reached one-week highs as of Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Primary Catalyst:

Diplomatic tensions escalated after President Trump demanded compensation from Iran as part of any peace agreement, diminishing hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal. This increased market uncertainty and added a risk premium to oil prices due to potential supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Supply Disruptions:

• Strait of Hormuz exports plummeted to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week ending August 7, down from 4.4 million bpd the previous week
• Saudi Aramco delayed the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery
• Elevated insurance costs and route diversions affecting shipping through Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb

Technical Outlook:

For WTI, immediate resistance stands at $87, with potential rallies targeting $92-$93.80 and ultimately $100. A breakout above $97 would confirm a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, potentially driving prices toward $120.

Brent faces key resistance at $92, with support at $81. A break above $92 could push prices toward $100, with longer-term targets at $120-$127.

Market Implications:

The outlook remains bullish short-term, supported by tight supply conditions and geopolitical risk. However, any diplomatic breakthrough or reopening of key shipping routes could rapidly ease supply concerns and pressure prices lower. Traders should monitor peace negotiations and regional shipping data closely.