Dow slips as Hormuz uncertainty, inflation data keep Wall Street cautious

• Fed rate hike probability for September dropped to 44% from 67% a week earlier, helping support equities despite inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Strong earnings season continues with 85.1% of S&P 500 companies beating Q2 expectations, prompting J.P. Morgan to raise its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800.
• Oil prices rose approximately 1% on Hormuz supply concerns, with negotiations ongoing but uncertain, while notable stock movers included Intel down 3.6% on a $15 billion stock offering and Apple falling 2% on a Jefferies downgrade.

Summary: Dow Slips on Hormuz Uncertainty and Inflation Concerns

Market Performance:

Wall Street opened cautiously on Monday, August 10, 2026, with the Dow Jones falling 79 points, the S&P 500 nearly flat, and the Nasdaq declining 0.13%. Both the S&P 500 and Dow recently hit record highs following their strongest weekly performance since April.

Strait of Hormuz Developments:

Ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil shipping route—kept markets on edge. While Iran indicated progress toward reopening the waterway through agreement with Oman, U.S. conditions remain unmet. Oil prices rose approximately 1%, with WTI crude reaching $79/barrel and Brent crude trading near $84/barrel, as supply disruption concerns persisted.

Inflation and Fed Policy:

Investors are focused on upcoming consumer and producer price index reports that will shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. The probability of a September rate hike dropped to 44% from 67% the previous week, according to CME FedWatch data, following weaker July employment figures. Markets are optimistic that moderating inflation and stable monetary policy could sustain the equity rally.

Corporate Earnings:

Strong earnings continue supporting equities, with 85.1% of 436 S&P 500 companies beating Q2 expectations—above historical averages. J.P. Morgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800, citing resilient earnings and confidence in AI-driven revenue growth.

Notable Stock Moves:

• Intel fell 3.6% on a $15 billion stock offering announcement
• Apple dropped 2% after Jefferies downgraded to "underperform"
• GameStop gained on reports of potentially withdrawing a $56 billion eBay bid

This week's earnings calendar includes Applied Materials, Cisco, CoreWeave, and other key technology companies.