Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Lead Monday's Pre-Market Bid Ahead of CPI

• July payrolls contracted by 23,000 jobs versus expectations of an 80,000 gain, with prior months revised lower and wages slowing, prompting markets to price out Fed rate hike odds
• WTI crude rebounded above $79 after Iran denied direct Hormuz negotiations, complicating the inflation narrative with headline CPI expected at 3.4% year-over-year on Wednesday
• The Nasdaq minor trend is up but main trend remains down, while S&P 500 closed at record highs with both trends positive; rally breadth remains narrow and concentrated in growth stocks

Market Summary: Tech Stocks Lead Pre-Market Rally Ahead of Critical CPI Data

Key Market Movements

Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.46% in pre-market trading Monday, leading major indices after the S&P 500 closed at a record high. S&P 500 futures rose 0.16%, while Dow futures remained flat. All three indexes posted their strongest weekly gains since April.

Employment Data Impact

July payrolls contracted by 23,000 jobs, significantly missing the expected 80,000 gain, with prior months revised lower. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, though labor participation declined. This weak data dropped September rate hike probability to 44% from 67% the previous week, benefiting high-valuation tech stocks.

Oil and Inflation Concerns

WTI crude climbed back above $79 after Iran denied direct negotiations over Hormuz Strait access, reviving inflation concerns. The oil price increase complicates the relief rally, as crude movements directly impact inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions.

Critical Data Ahead

Wednesday's CPI report is now pivotal—consensus expects headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. A soft print would support continued tech stock gains and keep yields suppressed. A hot reading could reverse Friday's rally and resurrect rate hike expectations. PPI data Thursday and retail sales Friday follow.

Companies in Focus

Earnings reports this week include Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave, Applied Materials, Cisco, On Holding, and Cava. AI-related stocks remain vulnerable, with poor guidance potentially triggering 10%+ moves.

Technical Outlook

The Nasdaq's minor trend is up but main trend remains down, requiring a break above 30,077.75 to confirm bullish momentum. The S&P 500 shows both trends positive near record highs at 7,820.25.