Russia's oil output rises in July on firm exports, refinery run recovery, sources say

• July production rose to above 9 million bpd from June's 8.928 million bpd, though Russia stopped publishing official oil output data in 2023
• Russia plans to increase crude exports from western ports by 4% in August, as unplanned refinery outages free up volumes for export
• Drone attacks in late July and early August, combined with Black Sea tanker capacity shortages, could force producers to curb output due to difficulties placing crude volumes

Summary: Russia's Oil Output Rises in July Despite Ongoing Challenges

Key Figures:

Russia's crude and condensate production increased by approximately 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, reaching above 9 million bpd, up from June levels. According to OPEC data, Russian output had declined to 8.928 million bpd in June from 8.989 million bpd in May. OPEC estimates Russia's average 2025 oil production at 9.129 million bpd.

Main Drivers:

The July increase was supported by strong oil exports and recovering refinery throughput. Russia plans to boost crude exports from western ports by 4% in August compared to July, as unplanned refinery outages free additional volumes for export.

Market Context:

Oil and fuel sales remain critical budget revenue sources for Russia, motivating Moscow to maximize supplies despite Western sanctions. Russia ceased publishing official oil output data in 2023, approximately one year after the Ukraine conflict began.

Challenges and Outlook:

Industry sources indicate Russia is unlikely to maintain July output levels in August due to several factors:

• Escalating drone attacks on refineries in late July and early August
• Tanker capacity shortages in the Black Sea
• Infrastructure limitations constraining export redirections

The Russian central bank noted earlier 2025 production declines resulted from refinery damage and export constraints, with limited ability to redirect crude volumes due to transport and port infrastructure capacity.

Recent drone strikes continue disrupting operations, including a Thursday attack causing fires at a Yaroslavl region refinery. These ongoing attacks could force producers to curb output due to placement difficulties for crude volumes.

Investment Implication: Russia's oil production remains volatile amid geopolitical tensions, infrastructure constraints, and persistent attacks on energy facilities.