Dow futures jump 195 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens

• SpaceX stock fell despite strong revenue growth ($4.29 billion from Starlink) as $18.37 billion in quarterly capex, including $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure, raised concerns about capital intensity; post-IPO lock-up expiries starting Thursday add technical selling pressure.
• AMD reported record revenue of $11.54 billion (up 50% year-over-year) and beat Q3 guidance, but shares dropped as adjusted gross margin forecast remained flat at 56%, signaling the market now demands proof that AI demand can expand profitability, not just sales.
• Key economic data due includes ADP private-employment report (8:15 am ET), S&P Global services PMI (9:45 am), and ISM services index (10 am), with traders pricing 58.4% probability of a Fed quarter-point rate increase in September; major earnings from Disney, Eli Lilly, Uber, and Western Digital also expected.

Market Summary: Pre-Market Futures Mixed as Tech Earnings Drive Divergence

Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance Wednesday morning, with Dow futures up 195 points (+0.41% on S&P 500 futures) while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.02%. The divergence follows record closes for the Dow and S&P 500 on Tuesday, driven by optimism over potential Middle East diplomatic progress.

Key Movers:

*SpaceX* fell sharply despite reporting strong revenue growth, with Starlink generating $4.29 billion. However, massive capital expenditures of $18.37 billion—including $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure—raised profitability concerns. The company faces additional pressure from post-IPO lock-up expiries beginning Thursday. Verizon and AT&T dropped 2%+ on competitive threats from SpaceX's mobile ambitions.

*AMD* delivered record revenue of $11.54 billion (up 50% YoY) and beat earnings expectations at $1.66/share. Q3 guidance of $12.7-$13.3 billion exceeded forecasts, yet the stock declined as the company maintained gross margin forecasts at 56%, disappointing investors seeking profitability expansion alongside growth.

*Nvidia* gained 1.9% after SpaceX confirmed exclusive use of Nvidia hardware in data centers. Intel and Micron each fell 1.5%.

Economic Data Ahead:

Traders await crucial labor and services data: ADP employment report (8:15 AM ET), S&P Global services PMI (9:45 AM), and ISM services index (10:00 AM). Markets are pricing a 58.4% probability of a September Fed rate increase.

Earnings Watch:

Major reports due include Disney, Eli Lilly, Uber, CVS, Honeywell, Kraft Heinz (pre-market), and SanDisk, Western Digital, eBay (after close).

Market Implications:

The narrow tech rally suggests investors are rotating toward companies with clearer profitability metrics over pure growth plays, particularly in AI infrastructure.