Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Dives 5% As Bessent Signals Progress On U.S. – Iran Deal

• WTI crude dropped below $76.00 with potential support at $73.00-$73.50, while Brent crude fell below the $80.00 psychological level, testing support at $79.00
• Qatar confirmed a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been drafted and awaits confirmation from both the U.S. and Iran, with no transit tolls expected
• Natural gas declined toward the $2.70 level amid strong production and high storage levels, with traders anticipating a move to $2.50-$2.55 support if the decline continues

Market Summary: Oil Markets Plunge on U.S.-Iran Deal Progress

Key Price Movements:

Oil markets experienced significant losses on August 4, 2026, as diplomatic progress emerged between the U.S. and Iran. WTI crude dropped 5.57%, falling below the $76.00 support level with potential downside targets at $73.00-$73.50. Brent crude declined 5.18%, testing below the psychological $80.00 level and attempting to settle under $79.00. Natural gas retreated 3.60%, trading below $2.70 with potential support at $2.50-$2.55.

Geopolitical Developments:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be finalized within days, with no toll for passage. Qatar confirmed a proposal was drafted awaiting final confirmation from both nations. Reports suggest Iran may allow EU nations to remove mines from the strait, reversing previous positions. The potential involvement of European nations could serve as guarantees for ceasefire stability.

Market Implications:

Traders are pricing in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint, which would significantly increase supply flow and pressure prices lower. The prospect of a temporary deal providing time for comprehensive negotiations has created bearish sentiment across energy markets.

Natural Gas Fundamentals:

Natural gas faces additional pressure from strong production levels and high storage inventories, compounding bearish sentiment beyond geopolitical factors.

Technical Outlook:

All three commodities broke key support levels, with WTI needing to reclaim $80.00 and Brent requiring a move above $82.50 to regain bullish momentum. RSI indicators suggest room for further downside movement.