Trump promised a 'golden age' for agriculture. Farmers in Iowa say they're still waiting

• Farm bankruptcies increased in 2025-2026, with 19% of midsize and large Iowa farms financially vulnerable in December 2025, more than double the 2022 rate
• Trump's tariffs on China and other countries eliminated key export markets for soybeans and other crops, with farmers losing alternative buyers compared to his first term
• While Trump doubled the estate tax exemption and sent emergency aid payments, farmers say they prefer marketplace income over government subsidies and want policy certainty, not temporary relief

Summary: Iowa Farmers Struggle Despite Trump's "Golden Age" Promise

Key Developments:

Iowa farmers are facing severe financial pressure despite President Trump's pledge of a "golden age" for agriculture. Insurance costs have more than doubled in 2026 after federal subsidies ended, while input costs for fuel and fertilizer have surged amid the ongoing Iran war. Crop prices remain depressed as foreign buyers have disappeared due to trade tensions.

Critical Financial Data:

• U.S. farmers projected to lose $32 billion on major crops in 2027, up from $31 billion in 2026
• 70% of farmers report inability to afford necessary fertilizer
• 19% of midsize and large Iowa farms deemed financially vulnerable in December 2025—double the 2022 rate
• Farm bankruptcies increased in 2025-2026 versus prior years
• Trump's approval among rural voters fell to 44% in July, down 14 points from June

Market Implications:

Trump's tariff policies have eliminated key export markets, particularly China's soybean purchases. While corn exports are experiencing record volume due to global livestock demand (17 billion bushels produced in 2025), overall agricultural profitability remains severely challenged. The administration has provided billions in direct aid payments, but farmers indicate preference for market-based income over government support.

Political Ramifications:

The agricultural crisis poses risks for Republicans heading into 2026 midterm elections, as farmers—traditionally reliable GOP voters—express frustration. Congress has not passed a comprehensive farm bill since 2018, leaving crucial programs in limbo.

Positive Notes:

Deregulation efforts and doubled estate tax exemptions have provided some relief. Corn growers specifically have benefited from strong international demand despite trade tensions.

Overall outlook remains uncertain with no clear policy resolution in sight.