South Korea export growth seen easing but chip boom to hold: Reuters poll

• Semiconductor shipments jumped 180.6% in the first 20 days of July, with memory chip price increases accounting for much of the export value growth while volume gains remain modest
• The trade surplus is expected to reach $29.59 billion in July, down from $36.09 billion in June, with imports forecast to rise 26.6% year-over-year
• Despite record profits (Samsung's semiconductor operating profit rose over 250-fold in Q2), the KOSPI stock index has plunged more than 30% in July as investor expectations outpace results

Market Summary: South Korea Export Growth

Key Findings:

South Korean exports are projected to grow 59.0% year-over-year in July 2026, according to a Reuters poll of 15 economists. While this represents a slowdown from June's 70.7% surge—the largest increase since 1978—it marks the second-strongest growth rate in the current export streak that began in June 2025.

Driving Forces:

The robust performance is primarily driven by semiconductor shipments, particularly from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fueled by surging AI chip demand and rising memory chip prices. In the first 20 days of July, semiconductor shipments soared 180.6% year-over-year, though overall exports rose 52.3%.

Market Context:

Economists note that price increases, rather than volume gains, account for much of the growth. Shinhan Securities economist Ha Keon-hyeong emphasized that "shipment volumes is much more modest" compared to the headline figures. The slight deceleration is attributed partly to fewer working days in July.

Contrasting Market Dynamics:

Despite strong fundamentals, South Korea's KOSPI index has plunged over 30% in July amid AI-related concerns. SK Hynix reported record second-quarter profits but missed investor expectations. Samsung Electronics posted a 250-fold increase in semiconductor profits and forecasts continued strong AI chip demand with supply constraints through year-end.

Additional Projections:

• Imports expected to rise 26.6% (down from 30.0% in June)
• Trade surplus forecast at $29.59 billion (versus $36.09 billion previously)
• Official July trade figures release scheduled for August 1 at 9 a.m. local time