Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Soars 7% As Iran Attacks U.S. Forces In Jordan

• Iran attacked U.S. forces in Jordan in response to 'aggressive U.S. actions,' prompting President Trump to threaten retaliation and ending a brief four-day pause in hostilities
• U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels versus expectations of 1.3 million, reaching levels about 7% below the five-year average, while Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined to multi-decade lows
• Iran's rejection of Oman's proposal for mutual control of the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about prolonged disruption to the world's key oil supply route, with no resolution in sight between the U.S. and Iran

Market Summary: Oil Prices Surge on Iran Attack

Key Developments:

Oil markets rallied sharply following Iran's attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, ending a four-day military pause. WTI crude jumped 7% and Brent oil soared above $90.00, up 5.53%, as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East.

Major Price Movements:

• WTI Oil: Advanced 3.09%, testing resistance at $85.50-$86.00, with next targets at $90.50-$91.00
• Brent Oil: Rose 5.53%, breaking through $90.50-$91.00 resistance, eyeing $95.50-$96.00
• Natural Gas: Gained 1.00%, rebounding toward $2.75-$2.80 resistance

Geopolitical Factors:

President Trump pledged to "hit them hard" in response to Iran's attack, which Iran claimed was retaliation for "aggressive U.S. actions." Iran rejected Oman's proposal for mutual control of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil supply route—insisting on decisive management control. The inability to reach consensus suggests prolonged closure risks for the strait, potentially lasting weeks.

Supply Data:

U.S. crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels week-over-week, significantly exceeding analyst forecasts of 1.3 million barrels. Current inventory levels sit approximately 7% below the five-year average. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined from 311.4 million to 307.7 million barrels, reaching multi-decade lows—a longer-term bullish catalyst.

Market Implications:

The convergence of escalating Middle East tensions, declining U.S. inventories, and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions creates a strongly bullish environment for crude oil. Natural gas also benefited from safe-haven flows amid regional instability.