Nasdaq Index: Oil Shock and FOMC Risk Deepen Chip Stock Selloff

• WTI crude surged 6.9% to $89.88 and Brent gained 6.6% to $89.61 as geopolitical tensions escalated, threatening the inflation outlook just before Fed Chair Warsh's press conference
• Fed funds futures show a 70% chance of holding rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but the combination of spiking oil and potential hawkish Fed commentary threatens both tech stocks and the value rotation trade
• Chip stocks continued their five-day decline with individual bright spots like Teradyne up 9% and Seagate up 6%, while Vertiv fell 13% on weak revenue growth, showing the market demands stronger AI-related growth

Market Summary: Nasdaq Index Oil Shock and FOMC Risk

Key Market Movements

U.S. major indices experienced significant losses on July 29, 2026, with the Dow Jones down 761 points (-1.4%), S&P 500 falling 0.7%, and Nasdaq Composite declining 0.9%. The selloff marks the Nasdaq's fifth consecutive day of lower lows, indicating strong bearish momentum.

Oil Price Surge

Crude oil spiked dramatically following escalating Iran tensions, with WTI jumping 6.9% to $89.88 and Brent gaining 6.6% to $89.61. President Trump threatened a "hard" response to Iranian missile attacks on American forces, driving geopolitical risk premiums higher.

Federal Reserve Implications

Fed funds futures show a 70% probability the Fed will hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%. However, Chair Kevin Warsh faces challenging press conference conditions with surging oil prices raising inflation concerns, threatening both growth stocks and the rotation trade into value sectors.

Semiconductor Sector Performance

Chip stocks continued their decline despite some positive earnings. Teradyne surged 9% and Seagate rose 6% on strong results, while Vertiv plummeted 13% after revenue growth disappointed. The market demands exceptional performance from AI-related companies, with simple beats insufficient.

Other Notable Movers

Positive performers included Ford (+6%) on raised 2026 guidance, GE HealthCare (+12%) on earnings beat, and Manhattan Associates (+11%) on improved forecasts. Key tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm were pending after market close.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 faces resistance at 7,429-7,475, with potential downside toward the 200-day MA at 7,016. The Nasdaq threatens its 200-day MA at 23,971.