Mostly Quiet Ahead of Fed Decision

• The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% range, unchanged since December's quarter-point cut, as inflation remains stubborn but not spiraling (PCE at 4.1%, CPI at 3.5% in June)
• Pre-market futures were mixed with sector rotation: Dow up 413 points on strong earnings, while Nasdaq fell 270 points as microchip stocks were sold off
• Q2 earnings were mixed with Boeing missing estimates at -$0.76 per share vs -$0.34 expected, while Coca-Cola, UPS, and Sherwin-Williams all beat their earnings expectations

Market Summary: Mostly Quiet Ahead of Fed Decision

Market Overview:

Pre-market futures showed mixed performance on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, with sector rotation from tech into blue chips. The Dow gained 413 points while the Nasdaq fell 270 points. The S&P 500 declined 7 points, and the Russell 2000 added 2 points.

Federal Reserve Meeting:

The FOMC began its two-day meeting with no rate changes expected. The Fed has held rates steady at 3.50-3.75% since December's quarter-point cut. While June PCE inflation reached 4.1% (up 30+ basis points monthly since March), CPI dropped to 3.5%, suggesting the Fed will maintain a "wait and see" approach despite odds favoring a rate hike as the next move.

Economic Data:

• U.S. Trade Balance: -$101.5 billion in June, improved from revised -$105 billion in May but still near record deficits
• Advanced Retail Inventories: 0.0% (below 0.4% estimate), lowest since February
• Preliminary Wholesale Inventories: +0.3%, matching prior month

Commodity Markets:

Oil prices cooled amid Iran peace agreement optimism: $81/barrel WTI, $87/barrel Brent. Treasury yields: 4.63% (10-year), 4.30% (2-year).

Corporate Earnings (Q2):

• Boeing (BA): Missed with -$0.76 per share vs. -$0.34 expected
• Coca-Cola (KO): Beat by $0.05 at +$0.97 per share
• UPS: Beat by 6.67% with $1.76 per share
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW): Beat with $3.70 per share