Nasdaq 100: Oil Break Lifts Tech Stocks Before Fed and Megacap Earnings Test

• June durable goods orders missed expectations at 0.3% versus 2.1% estimate, with transportation equipment falling 13.5%, though orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%
• The temporary pause in U.S.-Iran strikes lifted crude prices, but tensions remain with Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel and ongoing Red Sea and Hormuz shipping disruptions
• Big Tech earnings will test AI investment thesis after Alphabet's 5% drop last week on raised capex guidance, with markets demanding proof that massive AI spending is generating revenue and cash flow

Market Summary: Tech Stocks Rally on Oil Decline Ahead of Fed and Earnings

Key Market Movements:

U.S. stock futures rallied Monday, July 27, 2026, with Dow futures up 500+ points (+1.1%), S&P 500 futures gaining 0.8%, and Nasdaq-100 futures rising 1.2%. The advance followed a sharp decline in crude oil prices after Brent exceeded $100 last week, pushing yields to their highest levels since January 2025.

Economic Data:

June durable goods orders disappointed, rising just 0.3% versus a 2.1% estimate and well below May's 4% increase. Transportation equipment orders plunged 13.5%, though computers and electronic products gained 3.1%.

Critical Week Ahead:

The market faces two major tests: the FOMC decision on Wednesday and earnings reports from four megacap tech companies—Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. These reports will determine whether concerns over AI infrastructure spending are justified. Last week, Alphabet shares dropped over 5% after raising its capex forecast, as investors demand proof that AI investments are generating revenue and cash flow.

Geopolitical Context:

The oil decline stems from a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes, though geopolitical risks remain elevated. Ukraine struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, and shipping disruptions continue in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Outlook:

The Nasdaq-100 remains in a downtrend with support at 28,212.50. A break below could target the 200-day moving average at 26,959.72, while holding could enable a bounce toward the 50-day average at 29,788.24. Analysts characterize Monday's move as short-covering rather than a trend reversal, with Fed and earnings outcomes determining near-term direction.