Guan Chong forecasts increased grindings in 2026

• Guan Chong's capacity utilization will reach 90% in 2026, up from 85% in 2025, but still below the normal rate of over 95%
• Grinding volume for 2027 is projected to decline due to El Niño weather pattern expected to reduce cocoa bean output and increase prices
• Global cocoa surplus is expected to narrow in the 2026/27 season as El Niño affects production while robust demand drives up grinding levels, according to Transgraph Consulting

Summary: Guan Chong Forecasts Increased Grindings in 2026

Malaysian cocoa grinder Guan Chong, one of the world's major cocoa processors, expects increased processing activity in 2026 as demand recovers from the previous year's slowdown, CEO Brandon Tay announced on July 27.

Key Figures:

• 2026 capacity utilization projected at approximately 90%, up from roughly 85% in 2025
• Both figures remain below the company's normal utilization rate of more than 95%
• 2027 grinding volumes expected to decline from 2026 levels

Market Outlook:

The recovery faces headwinds from weather-related supply concerns. The El Niño weather pattern is expected to reduce cocoa bean output in 2027, likely driving prices higher and constraining processing volumes.

According to Transgraph Consulting forecasts, a global cocoa surplus is projected to narrow during the 2026/27 season due to two factors: production constraints from El Niño conditions and increased grinding levels supported by robust demand.

Market Implications:

The improved capacity utilization signals recovering chocolate and cocoa product demand after 2025's slowdown. However, the anticipated supply constraints suggest tighter market conditions ahead, with potential price pressure on cocoa beans affecting processors' margins and planning. The weather-driven supply risks create uncertainty for the sector beyond 2026, potentially impacting chocolate manufacturers and consumer prices.

The outlook reflects the cocoa industry's ongoing challenges balancing demand recovery against climate-related production risks, particularly relevant for investors in cocoa processors, chocolate manufacturers, and commodity markets.