The Week Ahead: Fed, GDP and Big Tech Earnings Set the Tone for U.S. Stocks

• Major indices closed lower last week: Nasdaq down 2.13%, S&P 500 down 0.61%, Dow down 0.38%, though all remain above 52-week moving averages indicating intact long-term uptrends
• Key economic data includes Core PCE inflation (forecast 0.1% vs prior 0.3%), Q2 GDP (forecast 2.3% vs 2.1%), and Employment Cost Index, with Fed decision Wednesday at 18:00 GMT
• Big Tech earnings dominate: Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday after close, followed by Apple and Amazon Thursday, with focus on AI investment spending and monetization progress

Market Summary: Fed Meeting and Big Tech Earnings Drive Week Ahead

Market Performance

U.S. equities closed last week lower: Dow Jones at 51,947.25 (-0.38%), Nasdaq at 24,975.82 (-2.13%), and S&P 500 at 7,411.98 (-0.61%). The Nasdaq posted the largest decline among major indices.

Key Catalysts

Federal Reserve Meeting (July 29): Markets expect rates to hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with the FOMC statement and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:00 GMT and 18:30 GMT respectively. September identified as a "live meeting" if energy pressures persist.

Critical Economic Data:

• Q2 GDP forecast: 2.3% (prior 2.1%) - Thursday, July 30
• Core PCE Price Index forecast: 0.1% (prior 0.3%)
• Employment Cost Index forecast: 0.8% (prior 0.9%)
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence forecast: 92.1 (prior 91.2)

Major Earnings

Big Tech Reports: Microsoft ($4.24 EPS estimate), Meta Platforms ($7.19), Apple ($1.89), and Amazon ($1.81) report this week, with focus on AI investment and monetization.

Other Notable Companies: Boeing, Coca-Cola, PayPal, Visa, Qualcomm, Mastercard, and major energy firms including Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Market Risks

Rising oil prices driven by U.S.-Iran tensions are pushing crude toward $100, renewing inflation concerns and raising risks of a "higher-for-longer" policy stance. Increased energy prices and yields present headwinds despite economic resilience and strong corporate profits.

Technical Outlook

All major indices remain above their 52-week SMAs, confirming intact long-term uptrends. However, support levels face testing if Fed guidance, inflation data, or earnings disappoint. Catalyst-driven trading expected throughout the week.