10-year Treasury yield tops 4.7%, highest since January 2025

• The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.707%, while the 30-year yield rose above 5.188% as oil futures surged 4-5% with Brent crude approaching $100 per barrel
• Weekly jobless claims came in at 187,000, well below the expected 212,000, suggesting labor market strength despite geopolitical uncertainties
• Global bond yields rose in tandem, with UK 10-year yields topping 5% as new Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced £100 million in property tax cuts for hospitality venues

Market Summary: Treasury Yields Surge on Middle East Tensions

Key Developments:

U.S. Treasury yields climbed Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year note rising 5 basis points to 4.707%—its highest level since January 15, 2025, when it reached 4.790%. The 2-year yield increased over 4 basis points to 4.343%, while the 30-year yield advanced more than 4 basis points to 5.188%.

Market Drivers:

The yield surge was triggered by escalating Middle East tensions and rebounding oil prices. Brent crude futures approached $100 per barrel (up 5%, trading above $99), reaching levels not seen since before last month's U.S.-Iran ceasefire. WTI futures gained approximately 4%, trading above $90 per barrel. Reports of tanker attacks off Saudi Arabia's coast and renewed U.S. threats against Iran fueled the energy price spike.

Economic Data:

Weekly jobless claims for the period ending July 18 came in stronger than expected at 187,000, well below the 212,000 consensus forecast. Investors await Friday's S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report for further economic indicators.

Global Impact:

Government bond yields rose across Asia and Europe. UK's 10-year gilt yield increased 4 basis points above 5% amid investor concerns over new Prime Minister Andy Burnham's property tax cuts, which include a 20% reduction in business rates for hospitality venues costing approximately £100 million ($134 million).

Market Implications:

Analysts warn that while current economic data appears strong, escalating Middle East conflict and surging energy prices could create headwinds for employment markets and broader economic stability ahead.