Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Can AI Earnings Keep Tech Stocks Bid?

• Nasdaq-100 futures surged 1.25% to 29,138.50, outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.43%) and Dow (+0.31%) as chip stocks rebounded 3-6%, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up over 3%
• Key AI earnings tests loom this week from Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla, which will determine whether the semiconductor rally and AI spending cycle narrative can be sustained
• Oil's pullback on ceasefire talk reduced rate pressure on growth stocks, while gold rose 1.3% to $4,059, though Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish signals and expectations for higher policy rates continue capping precious metals

Market Summary: Tech Stocks Rally on Chip Rebound and Strong Earnings

Key Market Movements

U.S. index futures advanced Tuesday morning, led by the Nasdaq-100 (+1.25% to 29,138.50), with S&P 500 futures up 0.43% to 7,516.75 and Dow futures gaining 0.31% to 52,232.00.

Sector Performance

Semiconductors led the rally with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up over 3% pre-market. Major gainers included:

• Micron, Marvell Technology, and Astera Labs: each up ~6%
• Intel: up over 5%

Corporate Earnings: 87% of early S&P 500 reporters beat bottom-line estimates. Notable results:

• 3M: up 7% after beating Q2 estimates and raising full-year guidance
• General Motors: up 2% on adjusted earnings of $3.57 per share
• Novartis: up 4% after posting Q2 core earnings of $2.41 per share

Market Implications

The semiconductor rebound follows heavy selling last week, but sustainability depends on upcoming AI-related earnings from Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla later this week. These reports will be critical in confirming whether AI spending cycles remain intact.

Oil prices pulled back from Monday's gains on a proposed 10-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire, easing rate pressure on growth stocks. However, ongoing Middle East tensions—including 10 consecutive nights of strikes and a Houthi maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia—keep war premiums embedded in crude prices.

Precious metals rallied as geopolitical developments shifted rate expectations: gold up 1.3% near $4,059 and silver climbing 5%. However, hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and expectations for higher policy rates continue to cap upside potential.

Technical Levels

The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average at 7,535.58—a key level determining whether the rally extends into regular trading.