Iran War update: 5 things to know after hostilities resume

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20.3 million barrels daily (25% of global seaborne oil trade), has dropped 70% since hostilities resumed on July 10, 2026
• Qatar and Pakistan proposed a 10-day ceasefire, but risks are mounting as Houthis threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which could block Saudi Arabia's alternative export route and trigger triple-digit oil prices
• Iran retains capability to retaliate despite U.S. strikes, having recently killed American personnel at regional bases and attacked commercial vessels including a Greek-operated ship in Hormuz

Iran War Update: Summary of Resumed Hostilities

Key Developments

Following President Trump's declaration ending the ceasefire with Iran, U.S. Central Command has conducted 10 consecutive nights of strikes aimed at degrading Iranian capabilities targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Critical Shipping Disruptions

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted dramatically. Only 30 ships transited the strait over the weekend, compared to over 100 ships daily before hostilities began on February 28. The strait normally handles 20.3 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil daily, representing approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade, with nearly 90% destined for Asian markets, primarily China and India.

Market Impact

Brent crude surged above $90 per barrel on July 20, reaching month-high levels as supply concerns intensified. Energy analysts warn that continued disruptions into August could push crude prices into triple digits, particularly as inventory buffers are heavily depleted.

Escalation Risks

Iran continues retaliatory strikes on commercial vessels and military targets, recently killing U.S. personnel at bases hosting American forces. Trump vowed Tehran "will pay many times over."

Houthi militants have announced operations against Saudi shipping, threatening closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical secondary route. Since Hormuz disruptions began, Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels daily through Red Sea pipelines. Simultaneous closure of both straits would be catastrophic for global energy markets.

Diplomatic Efforts

Qatar and Pakistan have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, though Washington is preparing for potential failure. Analysts describe the situation as having "no good options," with risks of wider regional escalation mounting.