Iran War update: Five things to know after the resumption of hostilities

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20.3 million barrels of oil daily (25% of global seaborne oil trade), has dropped dramatically with only 30 ships transiting over the weekend versus 100+ daily before hostilities resumed
• Oil prices have surged with Brent crude breaking $90/barrel for the first time in over a month; analysts warn that continued disruption into August could force prices into triple digits due to depleted inventory buffers
• Qatar and Pakistan have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, but the Houthis' threat to attack Saudi shipping near Bab el-Mandeb could close the Red Sea export route that Saudi Arabia has used to divert millions of barrels daily around the Hormuz disruption

Iran War Update: Five Things to Know After Hostilities Resume

Key Developments:

U.S. Central Command has conducted 10 consecutive nights of military strikes on Iran since President Trump declared the ceasefire "over," targeting capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Critical Supply Chain Impact:

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted dramatically, with only 30 vessels transiting over the weekend compared to over 100 daily before hostilities began on February 28. The strait normally handles 20.3 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil daily—approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade, with nearly 90% destined for Asian markets, particularly China and India.

Market Response:

Brent crude surged above $90 per barrel on July 20, reaching month-high levels. Energy Aspects warns that with inventory buffers severely depleted, continued disruptions into August could push prices into triple digits and force Gulf production cuts.

Escalation Risks:

Iran continues retaliating despite U.S. strikes, attacking commercial vessels and launching missiles at bases hosting American forces, resulting in U.S. casualties. Qatar and Pakistan have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, though prospects remain uncertain.

Dual Chokepoint Threat:

Houthi militants announced immediate operations against Saudi shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening the critical relief valve for global oil markets. Since Hormuz disruptions began, Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels daily through Red Sea pipelines. Simultaneous closure of both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits would be "catastrophic for the global economy," according to geopolitical analysts.

Israel is reportedly preparing for potential full-scale campaign expansion within days, while analysts describe the situation as having "no good options" for de-escalation.