Oil Transfers in Gulf of Oman Slow After Ship Attacks, Data Shows

• Daily supertanker sailings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to two per day in the past week, down from five the previous week and eight in late June/early July, with each tanker carrying up to 2 million barrels
• Some shipping companies are now avoiding the U.S. military-guided transit scheme after Iranian Revolutionary Guards attacked and immobilized two oil tankers attempting to transit the strait
• U.S. claims current flow is nearly 14 million barrels per day (including bypass pipelines), representing two-thirds of pre-conflict traffic and a significant increase from March levels

Summary

Key Development: Ship-to-ship (STS) oil transfers in the Gulf of Oman have significantly declined following Iranian attacks on vessels, threatening critical energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Critical Data Points:

• Satellite imagery from July 18 showed only one pair of tankers conducting STS transfers, down from three pairs on July 11
• Supertanker crossings through the strait dropped to 2 vessels per day last week, compared to 5 the previous week and 8 daily in late June/early July
• Each supertanker carries up to 2 million barrels of oil
• Current flow stands at approximately 14 million barrels per day (7 million through the strait, 7 million via bypass pipelines), representing two-thirds of pre-conflict levels

Background: Since the Iran war began in late February, STS transfers have been crucial for moving Gulf oil exports. The U.S. military launched an operation in June using drones and helicopters to guide tankers through the waterway, helping export tens of millions of barrels and dampening energy price impacts from the largest-ever oil supply disruption.

Recent Escalation: Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported two oil tankers "exploded" and were immobilized after attempting transit. Safety concerns from Iranian attacks have prompted some shipping companies to avoid the U.S. military-guided transit scheme.

Official Response: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated Washington will continue assuring traffic through the strait "without Iran's cooperation" and disputed public ship tracking data accuracy.

Market Implications: Reduced tanker traffic and STS operations could tighten global oil supplies and increase price volatility, though U.S. officials maintain exports remain at two-thirds of pre-conflict levels.