China's June fuel oil exports for bunkers up 55% from May, data shows
Key Points
- June exports reached 577,000 barrels per day, up 18% from June 2025, with low-sulphur marine fuel prices at Zhoushan and Shanghai ports about $50/ton cheaper than Singapore
- Fuel oil imports recovered 76% from May's record low to 982,783 tons in June, though still down 30% year-over-year as refinery feedstock demand remained weak
- First-half 2026 total imports fell 3.6% to 9.39 million tons compared to the same period in 2025
AI Summary
Summary
China's Marine Fuel Exports Surge on Competitive Pricing
China's fuel oil exports, primarily for marine bunkering, reached 2.73 million metric tons (577,000 bpd) in June 2026, marking a 55% month-over-month increase and the highest level in 2026 to date. The volume represents an 18% year-over-year gain from June 2025.
Key Figures:
- First-half 2026 export volumes totaled 10.87 million tons, up 7.7% year-over-year
- Price advantage: Low-sulphur marine fuel at Zhoushan and Shanghai ports traded approximately $50/ton cheaper than Singapore, Asia's primary bunker hub
- June imports recovered to 982,783 tons, up 76% from May's record low, though still down 30% year-over-year
- First-half 2026 imports totaled 9.39 million tons, down 3.6% from the same 2025 period
Market Dynamics:
The export surge was driven by competitive pricing at Chinese ports, particularly during the second half of June, attracting increased ship refueling demand. The significant discount versus Singapore strengthened China's position in the regional marine fuel market.
Import volumes rebounded from May's historic lows but remained subdued as refineries showed lukewarm demand for fuel oil feedstock, opting for alternative materials. June imports consisted entirely of bonded storage trade, with zero ordinary trade volumes.
Implications:
China is strengthening its competitive position in Asia's marine bunkering market, challenging Singapore's dominance. The pricing differential suggests Chinese ports may continue attracting vessel refueling business, potentially reshaping regional bunker fuel trade flows. However, weak import demand indicates domestic refinery dynamics remain challenged.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Neutral | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 68% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 77% |