Oil tankers face 'worst case scenario' in Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks on ships, maritime risk CEO says

• Daily ship transits through Hormuz dropped to just eight vessels on Thursday from over 100 daily before February, with crews now refusing passage regardless of financial incentives
• Iranian attacks using anti-ship missiles have killed one seafarer and injured at least 14 others in recent strikes on crude oil tankers near Oman's coast
• The U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade and is conducting retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, while disputes over safe passage terms in a June 17 agreement remain unresolved

Summary

Key Development: The Strait of Hormuz faces a "worst-case scenario" as Iran intensifies attacks on oil tankers, forcing vessels through its territorial waters rather than U.S.-protected Omani routes.

Critical Figures:

• At least nine ships attacked since July 6
• One seafarer killed, 14 injured in recent attacks
• Daily transits plummeted from 100+ vessels pre-February to just 8 on Thursday (down from 15 the previous day)
• Iran used anti-ship missiles; mines remain a threat in traditional middle routes

Timeline & Context:

• U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, 2026
• U.S. reimposed naval blockade this week, disabling tanker M/T Belma on Wednesday
• U.S.-Iran deal signed June 17 promised safe passage but failed to define specific transit lanes

Market Implications:

The security crisis threatens global oil supply chains, as Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for energy exports. Ship traffic has fallen to three-week lows, with crews refusing transit regardless of financial incentives due to fear. The situation is escalating, with U.S. conducting retaliatory strikes and Iran threatening to extend disruptions to the Red Sea via Houthi allies, jeopardizing Saudi oil export alternatives.

Industry Response:

Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, reports crews are "even more concerned than before" with reduced willingness to transit. BIMCO's Jakob Larsen warns the situation "might well grow worse with time." Shipping companies show varying risk appetites, but crew consent remains essential for any transit decisions.

The ongoing dispute over safe transit routes and absence of reliable security guarantees suggest continued disruption ahead.