Economic outlook is worsening and Trump is getting blamed, CNBC survey finds

CNBC | July 17, 2026 at 12:17 PM UTC
Bearish 78% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • 47% of Americans report cutting back on essential items like food and medical care, up 6 points from April, with 60% of those earning under $30,000 reducing essential spending versus 35% of those earning over $100,000
  • Trump's economic approval rating is underwater at -22 (38% approve, 60% disapprove), the worst of his political career, while 68% disapprove of his handling of inflation
  • Support for military action against Iran has declined to 48% (down from 53% in April), with Trump's Iran approval at -28 and only 47% of non-MAGA Republicans supporting his handling of the issue

AI Summary

Summary: Economic Outlook Worsening as Trump Faces Blame

Key Findings

The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey reveals deep pessimism about the U.S. economy despite a strong stock market. The poll of 1,000 adults (margin of error ±3.1%) shows 61% of Americans are pessimistic about current and future economic conditions—the highest level since December 2023.

Economic Impact on Consumers

Consumer behavior reflects significant distress:

  • 47% are cutting back on essentials like food and medical care (up 6 points from April)
  • 67% are reducing non-essential spending including dining and entertainment (up 5 points)
  • Income disparity is stark: 60% of those earning under $30,000 are reducing essential purchases versus 35% of those earning above $100,000

Political Implications

President Trump's approval ratings remain deeply negative:

  • Overall approval: 40% (59% disapprove)
  • Economic handling: 38% approve, 60% disapprove (net -22, his worst ever)
  • Iran war handling: 35% approve, 63% disapprove
  • Inflation handling: 31% approve, 68% disapprove

However, Democrats hold only a modest 4-point advantage on congressional control preference, suggesting a divided but locked-in electorate.

Issue Rankings

Key voter concerns show partisan splits:

  • Democrats lead on cost of food (7 points) and "protecting democracy" (3 points)
  • Republicans lead on immigration/border security (22 points, their largest advantage)
  • Cost of food ranks as the top issue across most demographics, except Republicans (immigration) and voters 18-34 (housing)

Iran War Support Declining

Support for military action against Iran dropped to 48% (from 53% in April), with Trump's approval on Iran at -28, creating divisions even within his own party.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 75%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 80%
Consensus Bearish 78%