Iran-linked vessels pass through Hormuz ahead of US blockade

• Nine of 11 vessels transiting the strait Tuesday used Iranian routes, including three empty oil tankers entering and one VLCC carrying 2 million barrels of crude exiting
• Iran reportedly attacked seven commercial ships in the past week, killing or injuring nearly a dozen crew members, while attacks on Emirati supertankers caused oil prices to strengthen with prompt-month prices now exceeding future months
• Goldman Sachs warns that Gulf flow recovery will be slower than expected even after de-escalation, citing risk-averse shippers avoiding the strait following recent tanker attacks

Iran-Linked Vessels Surge Through Hormuz Ahead of U.S. Blockade

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased on July 15, 2026, as Iran-linked vessels rushed through ahead of a U.S. blockade taking effect Wednesday. Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed 9 of 11 vessels transiting the strait used Iranian routes.

Key Movements:

• Three empty oil tankers (one Aframax and two VLCCs) entered the strait
• Exiting vessels included one VLCC carrying 2 million barrels of crude, a medium-range tanker with refined products, two LPG tankers, plus a laden methanol tanker and dry bulk carrier with iron ore
• No visible traffic for tankers serving other Gulf producers on Tuesday

Geopolitical Context:

President Trump announced a blockade of all Iranian ports and threatened strikes on power plants and bridges if Tehran doesn't resume negotiations. The U.S. reported Iran attacked seven commercial ships in the past week, resulting in nearly a dozen casualties among crew members.

Market Impact:

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments daily. Shipping has sharply declined since conflict intensified in February. Attacks on Emirati supertankers strengthened oil market backwardation, with prompt prices exceeding future prices—indicating tight supplies.

Goldman Sachs warned that "the next phase of Gulf flow recovery could be slower than the initial phase even after geopolitical de-escalation," noting continued risk aversion among shippers using non-Iranian routes through Hormuz.

The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict poses significant risks to global energy supplies and shipping lanes critical to international oil markets.