Semiconductor Index Rally Eyes New Highs as Elliott Wave Correction May Be Complete

• The SOX pullback achieved 98% accuracy compared to Elliott Wave Pattern forecasts made days in advance, with the correction ending just above the predicted support zone
• Bulls are targeting new all-time highs contingent on the index holding above the July 7 low of $11,960, with a breakout above $13,250 needed for confirmation
• A failure to hold last week's low would trigger a deeper correction to approximately $10,500-$10,600 before another bullish attempt

Market Summary: Semiconductor Index Targets New Highs

Key Technical Analysis

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) appears to have completed an Elliott Wave correction pattern, positioning for a potential rally to new all-time highs. The index bottomed at $11,960 on July 7, 2026, approximately 98% accurate to the forecasted target range of $10,870-$11,765.

Price Levels and Targets

Current Support: July 7 low at $11,960 must hold for bullish scenario

Critical Breakout Level: $13,250 (last week's high)

Near-term Target: $13,590-$14,390 range for counter-trend rally

Downside Risk: Break below support could target $10,500-$10,600

Technical Outlook

According to Elliott Wave analysis, the SOX has completed its red Wave-iv correction, with red Wave-v potentially underway toward new highs. The analysis identifies the June 22 high as Wave-iii, followed by the corrective Wave-iv phase.

Two bullish scenarios remain in play:

1. Primary scenario: Direct move to new all-time highs contingent on holding above July 7 low
2. Alternative scenario: Three-wave counter-trend rally (B-wave) to $13,590-$14,390 before continuation

Market Implications

The semiconductor sector's technical setup suggests bullish momentum may resume if key support levels hold. Traders have clear risk parameters with defined stop-loss levels at recent lows. A confirmed breakout above $13,250 would validate the bullish thesis and potentially trigger upside momentum in the broader technology sector.

The analysis provides actionable entry/exit levels for traders positioning in semiconductor stocks and related ETFs.