Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls steeply as U.S. and Iran fight for control

• Traffic through the U.S.-protected southern corridor along Oman's coast has effectively collapsed after repeated Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, with ships increasingly using the northern route through Iranian territorial waters
• The U.S. has launched retaliatory strikes against Iran for the ship attacks, while Tehran has responded by firing on U.S. allies in the Gulf region
• President Trump announced plans to reimpose a naval blockade against Iran and demand ships pay the U.S. 20% of cargo value for protection services

Summary: Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Plummets Amid U.S.-Iran Conflict

Key Developments:

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined approximately 60% week-over-week, with only 14 vessels (including 4 crude oil tankers) transiting on Sunday compared to 37 the previous week, according to Kpler data. This represents a dramatic drop from over 100 daily transits before U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran began on February 28.

Security Situation:

The U.S.-protected southern sea lane along Oman's coast has "effectively collapsed," per Windward and Kpler analysts. Iran has repeatedly attacked commercial vessels using this route, demanding ships instead use a northern corridor through Iranian territorial waters. Ships are increasingly complying with Iran's demands or operating with transponders disabled to avoid detection.

Military Response:

The U.S. has conducted multiple retaliatory strikes against Iran following vessel attacks. Tehran has responded by targeting U.S. allies in the Gulf region. Despite the deteriorating situation, U.S. Central Command maintains that Hormuz remains open and operational.

Policy Implications:

President Trump announced plans to reimpose a naval blockade against Iran and demanded ships pay the U.S. 20% of their cargo value for protection services.

Market Impact:

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. The sharp decline in traffic and shift to Iranian-controlled routes creates significant supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risk. Energy markets face potential volatility as the conflict escalates, with implications for crude oil prices and shipping costs.