More sun needed to strengthen Ivory Coast cocoa crop, farmers say

• Rainfall across key cocoa regions fell 19-23.6mm below five-year averages last week, but persistent cloud cover and cold winds since Friday are preventing adequate sunshine needed for crop development
• Farmers expect clearer indications of main crop size by late August, with flowering continuing until September; crop yield depends on how many flowers survive to become pods
• Current mid-crop supply from the bush is scarce as the season nears its end, with temperatures ranging between 24.4-28.1 degrees Celsius across cocoa-growing regions

Summary: Ivory Coast Cocoa Crop Outlook Uncertain Due to Weather Concerns

Key Developments:

Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, requires more sunshine to strengthen its main crop season (September-February), according to local farmers on July 13. While below-average rainfall last week helped dry waterlogged soil from late June flooding, persistently overcast conditions are preventing optimal crop development.

Critical Weather Data:

• Soubre (western region): 7.3mm rainfall, 23.6mm below five-year average
• Daloa (west-central): 4.2mm rainfall, 19mm below average
• Temperatures ranged between 24.4-28.1°C (76-83°F)
• Current rainy season runs April to mid-November

Crop Concerns:

Farmers report that cocoa trees are flowering, with blooming expected to continue through September. However, multiple factors threaten yield:

• Excessive soil moisture risks crop diseases
• Insufficient sunshine preventing proper flower development
• Cold winds since Friday potentially damaging crops
• July weather crucial for adequate crop development

Farmers across key growing regions including Agboville, Divo, Abengourou, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro noted overcast skies limiting sun exposure. Young pods (cherelles) are appearing, but their survival rate will determine final crop size.

Market Implications:

Farmers expect clearer crop size indications by late August. Current mid-crop supplies are scarce as the season nears completion. Weather conditions over the coming weeks will be critical in determining the main crop yield, which could significantly impact global cocoa supply and pricing given Ivory Coast's dominant market position.

The situation is being closely monitored but not yet considered alarming by local producers.