Morning Bid: Crude up, chips down

• U.S. forces struck Iranian targets Sunday, prompting Tehran to attack U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan on Monday, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping to just six vessels Sunday, the lowest in five weeks
• The KOSPI fell 25% from its June 22 peak, re-entering bear market territory as semiconductor volatility continued following a Friday sell-off
• U.S. consumer price inflation data for June releases Tuesday alongside major bank earnings, with the core measure closely watched after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed commitment to price stability

Market Summary: Crude Up, Chips Down

Key Developments:

U.S.-Iran military tensions escalated over the weekend, with U.S. forces conducting strikes on Iranian targets Sunday, prompting Iranian attacks on U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan Monday morning.

Oil Markets:

Brent crude rose to nearly $80/barrel Monday before settling around $78/bbl—a relatively restrained response given recent volatility. Prices remain below mid-June levels before the interim peace deal. Critical concern centers on the Strait of Hormuz, with conflicting claims about its status. While Iran claims closure and President Trump asserts it remains open, ship-tracking data from Kpler shows tanker traffic has declined sharply, with only six vessels transiting Sunday—the lowest in five weeks.

Equity Markets:

Semiconductor stocks continued their downward trend. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted nearly 9% Monday, falling below 7,000 for the first time since early May and entering bear market territory—down 25% from its June 22 peak. Global equities declined and Wall Street futures traded lower before the opening bell.

Week Ahead:

Investors face a packed schedule with Q2 earnings season launching, featuring major bank earnings Tuesday. June U.S. consumer price inflation data releases Tuesday, with the core measure (excluding energy) closely watched for underlying price pressures following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish commitment to price stability.

Additional Note:

Europe faces a jet fuel supply deficit of nearly 600,000 bpd in Q3 2026, with inventories providing less than 30 days demand cover—the tightest among major markets.