Tanker traffic slows in Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran clashes

• Daily tanker transits had recently reached 40 ships, the highest since conflict began, but remain far below the pre-war average of 125-140 daily sailings through the strait that handles a fifth of global oil supplies
• The U.S. struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets after Iran allegedly attacked three Qatari and Saudi tankers, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. military sites in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain
• Global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as shipping resumed but remains constrained, with the IEA warning of tight diesel and gasoline supplies as refineries lag in responding to the strait's reopening

Market Summary: Strait of Hormuz Tensions Disrupt Oil Flows

Key Developments:

Daily tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed significantly on Friday following renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities this week. The strait, which handled approximately 20% of global oil supplies pre-conflict, saw traffic rise to 40 ships daily before this week's incidents—still well below the pre-war average of 125-140 daily sailings.

Market Impact:

• Oil prices rose 4-5% week-over-week following the escalation
• Global oil supply increased 4.1 million bpd in June but remains 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels
• The International Energy Agency warned of tight diesel and gasoline supplies, noting refineries have been slower to respond than crude markets

Recent Hostilities:

Washington accused Iranian forces of attacking three tankers (Qatari and Saudi vessels) this week, prompting U.S. strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets on Iran's southern coast and eastern provinces, killing 14 and injuring 78. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. military installations in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan with ballistic missiles. President Trump declared the interim truce "over," though officials later confirmed technical talks continue.

Political Context:

Iran completed condolence ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in a February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrike. His successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared publicly since being injured in the same strike. Qatar is reportedly mediating de-escalation efforts.

Outlook:

The conflict threatens oil supply recovery and highlights the fragility of the interim agreement. Trump faces political pressure with midterm elections approaching amid high gas prices and voter discontent over his inability to resolve the crisis.