Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Dives 4% As Traders Bet U.S. And Iran Will Stop Fighting

• Natural gas fell after EIA reported a 61 Bcf storage build versus 49 Bcf expected, with stocks now 185 Bcf above the five-year average
• WTI crude retreated from the $74.50-$75.00 resistance level toward $70.50 support despite Iran moving 11 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours during escalation
• Brent crude tested $76.00 support as traders dismissed war risks, with Qatar and Pakistan offering mediation services to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations

Summary

Energy Markets Decline Amid U.S.-Iran De-escalation Bets

Oil prices tumbled approximately 4% on July 9, 2026, as traders anticipated diplomatic resolution between the U.S. and Iran despite recent military escalation. WTI crude declined 3.70% toward the $70.50-$71.00 support level after failing to hold above $74.50-$75.00 resistance. Brent crude dropped 4.39% to test $76.00, with potential downside to $72.00-$72.50 if this level breaks.

Geopolitical Context:

Despite recent U.S. attacks on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation against U.S. Gulf assets, market sentiment remained bearish on oil. Iran successfully moved 11 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, though some vessels avoided the region. Qatar and Pakistan offered mediation services to restart negotiations. Traders believe both nations prefer keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, despite President Trump's earlier threats of naval blockades.

Natural Gas:

Natural gas plunged 6.50% following a bearish EIA storage report showing a +61 Bcf weekly build versus +49 Bcf expectations. The commodity is testing critical $3.00-$3.05 support, with potential decline to $2.75-$2.80 if breached. Current stocks are 15 Bcf below last year but 185 Bcf above the five-year average.

Market Implications:

The sell-off suggests traders are discounting Middle East supply disruption risks, betting on diplomatic resolution over prolonged conflict. This positioning leaves markets vulnerable to renewed escalation if negotiations fail.