Back-to-School spending to dip 6% amid economic worries, Deloitte forecasts

• Total projected spending of $30.4 billion represents a decrease to $557 per K-12 student from $570 last year, with about half of households planning to reduce dining out and entertainment to accommodate school expenses
• Despite value-seeking behavior, about one-third of K-12 parents classified as 'hyper value-seekers' are expected to spend 14% more than other shoppers through strategic purchasing
• The back-to-school season typically accounts for 2.3% of total annual U.S. retail sales, with $128.2 billion spent in 2025, though families are delaying purchases compared to earlier shopping trends

Back-to-School Spending Summary

Key Findings:

U.S. back-to-school spending is projected to decline 6% on an inflation-adjusted basis, according to Deloitte's survey released Thursday. Total spending is forecast at $30.4 billion, averaging $557 per K-12 student, down from $570 per student last year.

Economic Sentiment:

Consumer confidence has deteriorated significantly, with 57% of surveyed consumers expecting economic conditions to worsen over the next six months—the highest level recorded in the survey. This pessimism is driving more cautious spending behavior among families.

Shopping Behavior Changes:

• Families are prioritizing necessities like clothing while reducing technology purchases
• Approximately 50% of households plan to cut spending on dining out and entertainment to accommodate school expenses
• Parents are delaying purchases until closer to the school year start, seeking last-minute deals
• About one-third of K-12 parents are classified as "hyper value-seekers," expected to spend 14% more than average shoppers through strategic bargain hunting

Market Context:

The back-to-school season represents roughly 2.3% of total annual U.S. retail sales, with $128.2 billion spent in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation. Notably, PwC's competing forecast projects significantly higher spending of $922 per family, up 47% from 2025, suggesting divergent analyst expectations.

Market Implications:

Retailers should expect delayed purchasing patterns and increased price sensitivity. Technology and discretionary categories face headwinds, while essential items like clothing may prove more resilient. The conflicting forecasts between Deloitte and PwC highlight uncertainty in the retail outlook.

Methodology:

Deloitte surveyed 1,207 parents with K-12 children between May 22-29.