After latest Iran attacks, Kalshi traders don't see traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal this year

• Normal traffic is defined as a 7-day moving average of transit calls above 60, verified by IMF PortWatch data. Traders see the earliest likely return to normal as January 1, 2027 (53% odds).
• Polymarket traders are slightly more optimistic at 59% odds for normalization by December 31, 2026, using the same verification metrics.
• Piper Sandler analysts warn that global oil supply is 'way short' with the strait 'back in play' and any hope of reduced war risk insurance assessments has been eliminated.

Market Summary: Strait of Hormuz Traffic Outlook Deteriorates

Key Development:

Prediction market traders have sharply reduced expectations for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations in 2025, following President Trump's announcement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "over" after conducting strikes in response to Iranian attacks in the strait.

Market Probability Data:

• Kalshi traders now assign only 44% probability that traffic flows normalize by December 1, 2025
• Odds improve slightly to 53% by January 1, 2027
• As recently as July 4, traders placed over 50% odds on normalization by October 1
• Polymarket traders show marginally higher optimism at 59% probability for normal traffic by December 31, 2025

Definition: Normal traffic is defined as a 7-day moving average of transit calls exceeding 60, verified through IMF PortWatch data.

Companies/Platforms Mentioned:

• Kalshi (prediction market platform)
• Polymarket (competing prediction platform)
• Piper Sandler (investment bank)

Market Implications:

According to Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart, traffic in the strait is "suddenly very far from normal," creating significant supply concerns. Stuart notes that global oil supply is "way short" with the Strait compromised, and prospects for commercial insurers reducing war risk assessments have been eliminated.

Strategic Importance:

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime passage for global energy transportation, making its disruption highly consequential for oil markets and supply chains.

Disclosure: CNBC maintains a commercial relationship with Kalshi, including customer acquisition arrangements and a minority investment stake.