Evercore's Emanuel Doesn't See Fed Moving This Year

• Evercore maintains a 7,750 S&P year-end target, suggesting significant upside potential.
• Tech stocks are experiencing increased volatility due to a 'Wall of Worry' around AI adoption, spend, regulation, profit sustainability, and capital raise, leading to a rotation into other sectors.
• Lower oil prices are seen as a profound disinflationary positive, historically leading to 17% market gains in the following 12 months.
• Emanuel believes the Fed will not raise rates this year, despite market pricing, due to disinflationary forces and a cautious approach to avoid past mistakes.
• Increased volatility in tech is contrasted with less volatility elsewhere, with negative beta stocks (energy, utilities, consumer staples, insurance) moving inversely to the S&P 500, indicating diversification efforts and healthy demand for stocks.

Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI maintains a bullish S&P 500 year-end target of 7,750, despite short-term tech volatility driven by AI concerns. He sees the recent drop in oil prices as a significant disinflationary positive and believes the Federal Reserve will not hike interest rates this year, contrasting with current market expectations.