July will be a 'stronger month' for stocks, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

CNBC Television | July 06, 2026 at 12:01 PM UTC
Bullish 85% Confidence
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Key Points

  • July is expected to be a stronger month for stocks due to Q2 earnings surprising to the upside, leading to lower P/E ratios and room for expansion.
  • S&P 500 target of 8,000 is considered 'doable' this year, with potential for 8,400-8,800.
  • A 'bear market-like' decline is anticipated later in the year (August-October) driven by the new Fed framework, SpaceX share unlocks, cumulative petroleum shortages, and high margin debt.

AI Summary

Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts July will be a stronger month for stocks, driven by better-than-expected Q2 earnings leading to lower P/E ratios and potential expansion. He maintains an S&P 500 target of 8,000 this year, potentially higher. However, he anticipates a 'bear market-like' decline later in the year (August-October) due to factors like the new Fed framework, SpaceX share unlock, petroleum shortages, and high margin debt.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 85%
Consensus Bullish 85%