OPEC oil output rises in June as Gulf producers revive supply, Reuters survey shows

• June output of 19.43 million bpd marks a recovery from May's lowest monthly figure since at least 2000, worse than COVID-19 pandemic lows in 2020
• Kuwait and Iran experienced the biggest production increases after the U.S. lifted its blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports
• The figures exclude the United Arab Emirates, which exited OPEC effective May 1, and production remains far below agreed quotas

Summary: OPEC Oil Output Surges in June Following Iran War Disruptions

Key Development:

OPEC oil production jumped by 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 19.43 million bpd, rebounding from the lowest levels in over two decades recorded in May, according to a Reuters survey.

Main Driver:

The increase follows the resumption of Gulf oil supplies after disruptions caused by the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. ended its blockade of Iranian ports, enabling production recovery.

Top Producers:

• Kuwait and Iran recorded the largest output increases
• Saudi Arabia and Iraq also raised production
• Nigeria and Libya increased output despite being unaffected by the war
• Figures exclude the United Arab Emirates, which exited OPEC as of May 1

Market Context:

May's production levels were the lowest since at least 2000—worse than the COVID-19 pandemic collapse in 2020 when demand plummeted. Despite the June recovery, output remains significantly below OPEC+ quotas.

OPEC+ Agreement:

Seven OPEC+ members (including allies like Russia) had agreed to raise production in June, but the Iran war initially made implementation impossible.

Data Sources:

The survey compiled information from LSEG flow data, tracking companies like Kpler, and sources from oil companies, OPEC, and consultants.

Implications:

The dramatic month-over-month recovery signals improving supply conditions in the Gulf region and potential price pressure as more barrels enter the market. However, sustained production below quotas suggests continued market tightness.