Gulf oil exports jump in June on record UAE flows

Reuters | July 03, 2026 at 01:29 PM UTC
Neutral 84% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • UAE crude exports hit an all-time high of 3.7-3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May levels, leading the Gulf recovery
  • Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached 14 vessels per day (98 total between June 22-28), the highest since conflict began, with floating storage declining from 96 million barrels in April to 23 million barrels
  • Saudi Arabia increased exports by 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd while Iran raised exports over 70% to 640,000 bpd as the U.S. blockade eased

AI Summary

Gulf Oil Exports Surge in June Following U.S.-Iran Agreement

Key Developments:

Gulf crude oil exports jumped significantly in June 2026, rising above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) - an increase of more than 3 million bpd from May. The surge followed a June 17 agreement between the U.S. and Iran to halt conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Critical Figures:

  • Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran reached 10.07 million bpd (Kpler data) or 10.2 million bpd (Vortexa data)
  • Exports remain 40% below pre-conflict levels of 16.5 million bpd from a year earlier
  • UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7-3.8 million bpd, exceeding May levels by over 1 million bpd
  • Saudi exports increased 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd
  • Floating storage in the strait peaked at 96 million barrels in late April, declining to 23 million barrels by June

Market Impact:

The restoration of tanker traffic cleared the Gulf oil export backlog, enabling producers to increase output and push oil prices back to pre-conflict levels. Ship traffic surged to 98 tankers (14 daily) crossing the strait between June 22-28, the highest since conflict began, with 47 laden outbound tankers and 41 ballast vessels entering.

Regional Performance:

Iraq and Kuwait exports recovered to approximately 800,000 bpd each. Iran raised exports by over 70% to 640,000 bpd as U.S. blockade eased. Kuwait boosted production to 1.65 million bpd in June. During the conflict, Saudi Arabia and UAE utilized pipelines bypassing Hormuz to sustain exports.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 82%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Neutral 84%