Saudi Arabia has ramped up oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz since U.S.-Iran deal

CNBC | July 02, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
Neutral 81% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • Saudi Arabia paused shipments from Gulf terminals Ras Tanura and Juaymah on March 9 and redirected exports through an East-West pipeline to Red Sea terminal Yanbu during the conflict
  • About 24 million of the 34 million barrels shipped since June 17 were loaded before or during the war, indicating Saudi Arabia is clearing a backlog with approximately 17 million barrels of pre-war oil still remaining in the Gulf
  • Eleven supertankers entered the Gulf between June 23 and July 1, with eight already loaded and five having exited Hormuz, showing the kingdom is actively restarting export logistics beyond just clearing backlogs

AI Summary

Summary

Key Development:

Saudi Arabia has significantly increased oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran agreement signed June 17 to end hostilities and reopen the strategic waterway.

Critical Figures:

  • Saudi Arabia shipped 34 million barrels through Hormuz since June 17
  • This represents more than double the 15 million barrels shipped between March 9 and June 17
  • Approximately 24 million barrels shipped post-agreement were loaded during or before the conflict, indicating backlog clearance
  • 17 million barrels of pre-war Saudi oil remain in the Gulf
  • About 8.5 million barrels passed through Hormuz on Wednesday; nearly 15 million barrels per day transited the strait in 2025

Background:

Riyadh suspended shipments from Gulf terminals Ras Tanura and Juaymah on March 9 after Iranian attacks caused tanker traffic to plummet. During the conflict, Saudi Arabia redirected exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea terminal of Yanbu.

Current Status:

Saudi Arabia is now restarting normal Gulf export operations beyond just clearing backlogs. Between June 23 and July 1, eleven supertankers entered the Gulf; eight loaded at Saudi terminals and five have already exited Hormuz.

Market Implications:

The resumption of shipments through Hormuz restores a critical oil supply route, reducing logistical costs and improving global oil flow. However, recent incidents—including Tehran attacking two ships and subsequent U.S. military response—suggest ongoing volatility risks. Tanker traffic fluctuated from eight ships Sunday to sixteen Wednesday, indicating cautious normalization of this vital energy corridor.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 80%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Neutral 81%