World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Goldman estimates

• Goldman projects total nonfarm payroll growth of 140,000 jobs for June, exceeding the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 115,000, largely due to World Cup-related hiring
• Homebase data showed that the 11 World Cup host cities experienced a smaller hiring decline (1.2% year-over-year) compared to other cities (3.5% decline), with hospitality hiring up 9.5%
• The estimate would represent a significant improvement over June 2025's loss of 20,000 jobs, though still below May's stronger performance

Summary:

Goldman Sachs projects the World Cup could add approximately 40,000 jobs to the June employment report, scheduled for release Thursday. While the Dow Jones consensus forecasts nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000—down from May's figures—Goldman estimates a stronger 140,000 gain due to World Cup-related hiring.

Key Data Points:

• Goldman's projection: 140,000 jobs added in June
• World Cup boost estimate: ~40,000 positions
• Consensus estimate: 115,000 jobs
• Historical context: 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025

Supporting Evidence:

Data from Homebase, a small business payroll firm, reveals the tournament's impact on hiring patterns. The 11 World Cup host cities experienced a 1.2% year-over-year hiring decline, significantly outperforming non-host cities which fell 3.5%. The hospitality sector showed particularly strong growth at 9.5%, indicating direct World Cup influence.

Sectors Affected:

Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels identified three primary sectors benefiting from World Cup hiring:

• Leisure and hospitality
• Professional and business services
• Trade and transportation

Additional Context:

Goldman noted that June payroll figures historically show upward bias in initial reports, though the past four years have seen downward revisions in subsequent estimates. Despite the anticipated World Cup boost, June's job growth would still represent a deceleration from May's pace, though substantially better than the prior year's June performance.

The analysis highlights how major sporting events can temporarily influence labor market dynamics, particularly in service-oriented industries.