Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Tests New Lows As Trump Hails Progress In Iran Talks

• Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have surpassed 10 million bpd, with the UAE restoring exports to pre-war levels after exiting OPEC
• WTI crude broke below $70.50-$71.00 support and is testing $68.50, with potential downside to $62.00-$62.50 if current levels fail
• EIA report showed U.S. crude inventories declined 3.8 million barrels (less than the 5.1 million forecast), while domestic production remained flat at 13.8 million bpd

Market Summary: Oil Markets Decline on Iran Deal Progress

Key Market Movements

Oil prices tested new lows on July 1, 2026, with WTI crude falling 2.39% and Brent crude dropping 2.62%. Natural gas declined 0.98% despite hot weather conditions.

Main Drivers

President Trump announced significant progress in negotiations with Iran, spurring trader expectations of a deal resolution. Critically, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have exceeded 10 million barrels per day (bpd), with the UAE restoring exports to pre-war levels after leaving OPEC.

WTI crude broke below the $70.50-$71.00 support level, testing $68.50 with potential further downside toward $62.00-$62.50. Brent crude is attempting to settle below $72.00-$73.00 support, with next support at $67.00-$67.50.

EIA Inventory Data

The latest EIA report showed:

• Crude inventories declined 3.8 million barrels (vs. forecast of 5.1 million)
• Gasoline inventories fell 2.3 million barrels (vs. forecast of 0.95 million)
• Distillate inventories increased 2.5 million barrels
• Crude imports averaged 5.3 million bpd, down 291,000 bpd
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased from 331.2 to 325.7 million barrels
• Domestic production held steady at 13.8 million bpd

Natural Gas Outlook

Natural gas is consolidating at $3.20-$3.25 support ahead of tomorrow's EIA report, expected to show storage increases of +81 Bcf.

Market Implications

Rising Middle East oil supply and diplomatic progress are creating significant downward pressure on crude prices, with technical indicators suggesting further bearish momentum despite oversold conditions.