Private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, less than expected, ADP reports

CNBC | July 01, 2026 at 12:19 PM UTC
Neutral 86% Confidence Split Agreement
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Key Points

  • Education and health services accounted for 48,000 of the 98,000 jobs added, with services sectors providing all but 2,000 new positions
  • Annual pay gains held steady at 4.4% for workers staying in their jobs, while job switchers saw wages rise 6.6%
  • Small businesses (under 50 employees) drove hiring with 53,000 jobs added, while large companies (500+ employees) added only 25,000 positions

AI Summary

Summary: ADP Private Payrolls Report - June 2026

Key Figures

Private sector employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 110,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate and down from May's 122,000. This marks a continued slowdown in hiring momentum.

Sector Performance

Education and health services dominated job creation, accounting for nearly half (48,000) of new positions. The services sector added all but 2,000 of total jobs. Other gainers included:

  • Trade, transportation and utilities: +15,000
  • Financial activities: +14,000
  • Other services: +8,000

Notably weak sectors included leisure and hospitality (+2,000 only) and natural resources/mining (-5,000), the only sector posting losses.

Wage Data

Annual pay increases remained steady at 4.4% for workers staying in their positions, while job switchers saw wages rise 6.6%, indicating continued premium for mobility.

Company Size Breakdown

Small businesses (under 50 employees) led hiring with 53,000 additions, while large companies (500+ employees) added 25,000 positions.

Market Implications

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted the report reflects both supply constraints in certain industries and weakening demand, resulting in "a slowdown in job creation." The leisure and hospitality sector's weakness particularly signals potential softening in consumer demand.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' official nonfarm payrolls report, due Thursday, is expected to show 115,000 job gains with unemployment steady at 4.3%. ADP figures have historically undershot the government's official counts in recent months.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Neutral 85%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 85%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Neutral 86%